Predicting monsoon rainfall and pressure indices from sea surface temperature
The relationship between the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean and monsoon rainfall has been examined by using 21 years data set (1967-87) of MOHSST.6 (Met. Office Historical Sea Surface Temperature data set, obtained from U.K. Met. Office, Brecknell, UK). Relationship between SST and pressure indices (change in sea level pressure from January to April at Darwin (DWPJ-A), difference in sea level pressure at Bombay between April and January (BMBPA-J); change in 500mb ridge position along 75 degrees E from March to April (A-MR500)) is also examined. SST in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO, 0-5 degrees N; 80-85 degrees E) during October and November months of the previous year is strongly and positively correlated (r=0.75) with all India summer monsoon rainfall (R1 sup(10), R2 sup(11) and R3 sup(12)) which explains more than 57% variance in the rainfall. SST in November (-1 year) significantly correlated (-0.77 and 0.70) with DWPJ-A and BMBPA-J. SST during October (-1 year) is positively and significantly correlated (0.63) with the A- MR500.
- Scholarly literature