Statistical modelling of monthly mean sea level at coastal tide gauge stations along the Indian subcontinent
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This study investigates the suitability of statistical models for their predictive potential for the monthly mean sea level at different stations along the west and east coasts of the Indian subcontinent. Statistical modelling of the monthly mean sea level at 15 selected tide gauge stations (8 stations on the west and 7 stations on the east coast) along the coastline of the Indian subcontinent was attempted using autoregressive, sinusoidal and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) techniques. Statistics pertaining to the mean seasonal cycle as well as interannual variability are also presented. A strong domination of the annual cycle over the semi-annual cycle was seen at ten stations. The maximum seasonal sea level ranges were observed along the west coast at Bhavnagar (63 cm) and along the east coast at Sagar Island (48 cm). While the autoregressive and sinusoidal models were satisfactory. EWMA technique was found to be the best of all. Tuticorin on the east coast, and Mormugao on the west coast have shown minimum RMSEs for the corresponding coasts for all the three models, while Bhavnagar on west coast has shown very high RMSE values. The EWMA technique (which yields forecast with a lead time of only one month) gave the lowest root mean square errors relative to the verifying observations.
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